Work in Progress
Positional Blurring in Context: How Dimensionality and Ideology Constrain Strategy
with Jacob Gunderson
Conditionally accepted at Perspectives on Politics.
Abstract: Positional blurring is a common and effective party strategy. It enables parties to downplay some issues while highlighting and clarifying the party’s profile on others. However, we know little about how parties use this strategy outside European party systems, where (right-wing) populist parties are particularly noteworthy for their blurred economic positions and clear cultural positions. Is that strategy inherent to populism or a reflection of context-specific incentives? This paper uses data from Europe and Latin America to argue that populists tailor their strategies to the dimensionality of their party system and populism’s host ideology. We find that multidimensional party systems and exclusionary thick ideologies drive populists to blur their economic positions. Extending this research field beyond Europe for the first time, these findings show that populists are heterogenous actors whose varied thick ideologies embedded in diverse political systems systematically constrain their strategic behavior.
Affective Clientelism: How Electoral Gift-Giving Cultivates Partisan Attachments and Electoral Support
with Rodrigo Castro Cornejo
Invited to revise and resubmit at Perspectives on Politics.
Abstract: While scholarship has long recognized the role of affects and emotions as constitutive motivators sustaining patron-client ties, quantitative research predominantly portrays clientelist relationships as strategic interactions between utility-maximizing actors. We develop a theoretical framework characterizing three distinct motivations underlying clientelistic exchanges: instrumental calculations, normative obligations, and affective attachments, and focus on how the latter shape electoral behavior and partisan loyalties among recipients. Specifically, we posit that gift-giving can foster positive affective ties and strengthen partisan loyalties. To test this theory, we employ a three-part methodological approach in Mexico: a three-wave panel study tracking clientelism’s effects on attitudes and behavior, a mediation analysis examining affective pathways to electoral support, and a survey experiment testing whether clientelist exchanges evoke positive emotions toward patrons. Without denying the crucial role of instrumental and normative considerations in clientelist exchanges, our findings demonstrate that affective channels significantly contribute to cultivating and consolidating electoral bases. These results integrate insights from ethnographic research on affective dimensions of clientelism with quantitative approaches focused on material incentives, contributing to a growing body of work that moves beyond monitoring and enforcement towards understanding the broader relational and psychological foundations of clientelist ties.
Institutional Accountability and Support for Democracy: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
with Isabel Laterzo and Ayelén Vanegas
Invited to revise and resubmit at the British Journal of Political Science.
Abstract: How do criminal proceedings against democratically elected executives influence citizens’ support for democracy? We explore citizens’ reactions to institutional accountability processes by analyzing the effect of coup charges brought against former president Bolsonaro by Brazil’s Prosecutor General. Taking advantage of the fortuitous timing of these charges during our survey fieldwork, we demonstrate that the indictment significantly bolstered democratic support among non-Bolsonaro voters, while having no discernible negative effect on his supporters. Our findings offer a nuanced view of theories suggesting that partisan loyalties should lead supporters to reject democratic institutions that target their preferred leaders. This study contributes novel evidence on democratic resilience by capturing real-time reactions to consequential accountability processes outside experimental settings.
Thick and Thin Ideological Dimensions of Party Competition in Latin America
with Pablo Argote and Giancarlo Visconti
Under review.
Abstract: While previous research has shown the programmatic component of party competition in Latin America is structured along a single ideological left-right dimension, we argue that voters perceive party competition as simultaneously structured along two axes: a thick and thin ideological dimension. While the former represents traditional definitions of left-right competition, this latter dimension is characterized by the division between establishment and non-establishment orientations. We test this hypothesis in Chile, a country that previously has been characterized as the most unidimensional of the region. Using robust latent variable estimation techniques and both observational and experimental data, we show that voting decisions are shaped not only by left-right ideological positions but also by attitudes towards the political establishment. This finding challenges the prevailing unidimensional model of ideological competition in Latin America and suggests a more complex framework for understanding voter behavior in the region.
Political Identities and Belief Networks in Developing Democracies
Under review.
Abstract: Research in developed democracies suggests that belief networks are structured around political identities. However, we know much less about how belief networks are organized in places with less democratic experience and volatile party systems. Because political elites play a key role in structuring belief systems by organizing belief packages and signaling to voters which ideas “ought to be together”, belief systems in less organized party systems can potentially systematically differ from those in highly institutionalized democracies. I argue that alternative forms of political identification beyond partisanship play a fundamental role in shaping political belief networks in contexts where party competition is less institutionalized. Using data from Chile and Peru and Mixed Graphical Models (MGNs), I show how ideological and political movement markers, as well as partisan ones, play an important role in structuring belief systems. Findings underscore the relevance of alternative forms of political identification, beyond partisanship, in less institutionalized democracies.
The 2024 Chapel Hill Expert Survey – Latin America: Ideology, Populism, and Illiberalism
Under review.
Abstract: How do political parties in contemporary Latin America compete for popular support? This letter introduces the second wave of the 2024 Chapel Hill Expert Survey - Latin America (CHES-LA), a dataset of expert assessments of political parties’ positions across 18 Latin American countries. We first establish measurement reliability by benchmarking expert disagreement scores against both the 2020 CHES-LA and the 2024 CHES-Europe. We then evaluate the dimensionality of ideological party competition: while in Europe it is structured along distinct economic and socio-cultural dimensions, in Latin America party competition is organized along a single overarching left-right axis. Finally, we characterize patterns of party competition in Latin America across three relevant dimensions: left-right ideology, populism, and illiberalism. We find that populism and illiberalism are associated with ideological extremism and skew modestly to the right. Though conceptually distinct, populism and illiberalism are strongly associated empirically in contemporary Latin America.
Beyond Partisanship: Theory and Methods
Abstract: Partisan identities powerfully shape mass political behavior in established democracies, yet comparative evidence suggests they play a more limited role in developing nations. While scholars recognize that non-partisan political identities can anchor voter behavior in these contexts, existing research lacks theoretical and methodological tools to study them systematically. This article addresses these limitations by developing the Political Identities Profiles (PIP) framework, which provides theoretical and empirical tools for identifying and examining political identities within and across national contexts. Using original survey data from Latin America, this study makes three contributions to our understanding of comparative political behavior. First, it provides guidelines that enable systematic identification and measurement of distinct political identities beyond partisanship. Second, it introduces validation techniques to assess the distinctiveness, relevance, and cross-national comparability of diverse forms of identification. Third, it provides evidence of the importance of alternative forms of political identification in contexts where partisanship is weak.
The Institutions in Our Heads: Prototypes and Trust in Political Institutions
with Michael Greenberger
Abstract: Public trust in American political institutions has declined sharply since the 1950s, raising concerns about democratic stability, yet we lack a clear agreement on the precise psychological mechanisms underlying institutional trust formation. Understanding how citizens evaluate political institutions presents a significant theoretical challenge: political institutions consist of intricate networks of rules, procedures, and personnel, while citizens consistently demonstrate low levels of political knowledge and engagement. How do citizens generate judgments about complex political institutions despite their limited political sophistication? We argue that citizens navigate institutional complexity through heuristic processing, primarily by evaluating what they perceive as prototypical institutional members. Rather than engaging with institutional complexity directly, citizens form trust judgments based on their perceptions of representative institutional actors, effectively lowering the cognitive cost of their judgments. We propose evaluating several testable implications of our theory through four studies combining open survey questions content analysis, survey experiments, and conjoint experimental designs. Our findings seek to advance our understanding of political trust formation and inform practical efforts to rebuild confidence in democratic institutions.
A Model of Clientelistic Propensity: How Short-Term Economic Shocks Shape Voters’ Receptivity to Clientelism
with Gonzalo Contreras Aguirre
Abstract: Are voters more inclined to engage in clientelism depending on context-specific situations? Existing scholarship has largely focused on structural, institutional, and cultural norms to explain clientelism. Nevertheless, this literature does not adequately address the temporal dimension of citizens’ propensity to engage in clientelistic dynamics. In this article, we report evidence that willingness to engage in clientelism is driven by circumstantial factors, such as economic downturns or increases in political cynicism. Our contribution is twofold. First, we show that citizens’ willingness to engage in quid pro quo relations with politicians is at least partially driven by conjunctural conditions, rather than solely by structural and institutional determinants, as conventional scholarship asserts. Second, in the context of the worldwide crisis of representation and credibility in politics, we report that economic adversity, as well as temporary increases in political cynicism stemming from corruption scandals and other shortcomings of democratic representation, can play a significant role in explaining why people may be more likely to cast votes for non-programmatic reasons.