Work in Progress

To blur or not to blur: Disentangling populist ideology and electoral strategy in Europe and Latin America

with Jacob Gunderson

Under review.

Abstract: Populists often employ vague and elusive policy prescriptions, but we do not know if this facility for obfuscation is inherent to populism or if it is a response to other characteristics of these parties or their competitive environments. This paper uses data from Europe alongside novel, validated Latin American data to test the argument that populists tailor their strategies to the dimensionality of their party system and populism’s host ideology. We find that populists blur their economic positions in multidimensional systems and when they adopt exclusionary thick ideologies. Populist parties in unidimensional party systems and those with inclusionary thick ideologies, however, present clear economic positions. These findings, and the extension of this research field beyond Europe for the first time, have implications for the study of populism as a global phenomenon. Populism and the actors who deploy it should be theorized complexly as strategic actors embedded in diverse social and political systems structuring the opportunities and constraints that these parties adapt to in the electoral arena.

Why do Voters Comply During Clientelist Exchanges? Affective Clientelism, the Commitment Problem, and Expressive Partisanship in Mexico

with Rodrigo Castro Cornejo

Under review.

Abstract: Clientelist exchanges are typically analyzed from an instrumental perspective. In this paper we propose a new theory of affective commitments and argue that gift-giving can transcend utilitarian considerations, increase expressive attitudes towards political parties, shape partisan loyalties, and foster commitment to patron-client relationships. Identifying the effect of clientelism on citizens’ expressive considerations is particularly challenging because political parties often target loyal voters and voters tend to misreport these interactions. We overcome this challenge using a three-part strategy. First, we leverage a three-wave panel study that allows us to identify the effect of clientelism on affects, partisanship, and vote choice, controlling for political machines’ pre-existing patterns of resource allocation. Second, using a mediation analysis, we assess whether affects can increase commitment to patron-client relationships. Finally, we use a survey experiment to evaluate the plausibility of the proposed mechanisms. Without denying the crucial role that instrumental considerations have in clientelist exchanges, our findings suggest that affective channels play a role in solving commitment issues in patron-client relationships.

Institutional Accountability and Support for Democracy: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

with Isabel Laterzo and Ayelén Vanegas

Under review.

Abstract: How do criminal proceedings against democratically elected executives influence citizens’ support for democracy? We explore citizens’ reactions to institutional accountability processes by analyzing the effect of coup charges brought against former president Bolsonaro by Brazil’s Prosecutor General. Taking advantage of the fortuitous timing of these charges during our survey fieldwork, we demonstrate that the indictment significantly bolstered democratic support among non-Bolsonaro voters, while having no discernible negative effect on his supporters. Our findings offer a nuanced view of theories suggesting that partisan loyalties should lead supporters to reject democratic institutions that target their preferred leaders. This study contributes novel evidence on democratic resilience by capturing real-time reactions to consequential accountability processes outside experimental settings.

Explaining Programmatic Party Appeals in Contemporary Latin America: The Differing Roles of Ideology, Particularism and Populism

with Jonathan Hartlyn and Cecilia Martínez-Gallardo

Under review.

Abstract: Political parties and presidents in contemporary Latin America vary considerably in the extent to which they emphasize policy when appealing to voters (programmatism). We use Confirmatory Factor Analysis and data from the Chapel Hill Expert Survey—Latin America (CHES-LA) to examine how three key party characteristics relate to programmatism: ideological positions, particularistic strategies, and populism. Our results show that political actors on the ideological extremes rely more heavily on programmatism, that particularism and programmatism have a strong negative relationship, and that populism and programmatism are positively associated. Although these findings document important variation in how Latin American parties compete for votes, they reveal concerning patterns in contemporary party competition. Highly populist parties also tend to be programmatic, creating potential trade-offs between clear policy positions and democratic accountability.

Beyond Partisanship: Theory and Methods

Abstract: Partisan identities powerfully shape mass political behavior in established democracies, yet comparative evidence suggests they play a more limited role in developing nations. While scholars recognize that non-partisan political identities can anchor voter behavior in these contexts, existing research lacks theoretical and methodological tools to study them systematically. This article addresses these limitations by developing the Political Identities Profiles (PIP) framework, which provides theoretical and empirical tools for identifying and examining political identities within and across national contexts. Using original survey data from Latin America, this study makes three contributions to our understanding of comparative political behavior. First, it provides guidelines that enable systematic identification and measurement of distinct political identities beyond partisanship. Second, it introduces validation techniques to assess the distinctiveness, relevance, and cross-national comparability of diverse forms of identification. Third, it provides evidence of the importance of alternative forms of political identification in contexts where partisanship is weak.

Political Identities and Belief Networks in Developing Democracies

Abstract: Research in developed democracies suggests that belief networks are structured around political identities. However, we know much less about how belief networks are organized in places with less democratic experience and volatile party systems. Because political elites play a key role in structuring belief systems by organizing belief packages and signaling to voters which ideas “ought to be together”, belief systems in less organized party systems can potentially systematically differ from those in highly institutionalized democracies. I argue that alternative forms of political identification beyond partisanship play a fundamental role in shaping political belief networks in contexts where party competition is less institutionalized. Using data from Chile and Peru and Mixed Graphical Models (MGNs), I show how ideological and political movement markers, as well as partisan ones, play an important role in structuring belief systems. Findings underscore the relevance of alternative forms of political identification, beyond partisanship, in less institutionalized democracies.

Thick and Thin Ideological Dimensions of Party Competition in Latin America

with Pablo Argote and Giancarlo Visconti

Abstract: While previous research has shown the programmatic component of party competition in Latin America is structured along a single ideological left-right dimension, we argue that voters perceive party competition as simultaneously structured along two axes: a thick and thin ideological dimension. While the former represents traditional definitions of left-right competition, this latter dimension is characterized by the division between establishment and non-establishment orientations. We test this hypothesis in Chile, a country that previously has been characterized as the most unidimensional of the region. Using robust latent variable estimation techniques and both observational and experimental data, we show that voting decisions are shaped not only by left-right ideological positions but also by attitudes towards the political establishment. This finding challenges the prevailing unidimensional model of ideological competition in Latin America and suggests a more complex framework for understanding voter behavior in the region.

The Institutions in our Heads: Prototypes and Trust in Political Institutions

with Michael Greenberger

Abstract: Public trust in American political institutions has declined sharply since the 1950s, raising concerns about democratic stability, yet we lack a clear agreement on the precise psychological mechanisms underlying institutional trust formation. Understanding how citizens evaluate political institutions presents a significant theoretical challenge: political institutions consist of intricate networks of rules, procedures, and personnel, while citizens consistently demonstrate low levels of political knowledge and engagement. How do citizens generate judgments about complex political institutions despite their limited political sophistication? We argue that citizens navigate institutional complexity through heuristic processing, primarily by evaluating what they perceive as prototypical institutional members. Rather than engaging with institutional complexity directly, citizens form trust judgments based on their perceptions of representative institutional actors, effectively lowering the cognitive cost of their judgments. We propose evaluating several testable implications of our theory through four studies combining open survey questions content analysis, survey experiments, and conjoint experimental designs. Our findings seek to advance our understanding of political trust formation and inform practical efforts to rebuild confidence in democratic institutions.

A Model of Clientelistic Propensity: How Short-Term Economic Shocks Shape Voters’ Receptivity to Clientelism

with Gonzalo Contreras Aguirre

Abstract: Are voters more inclined to engage in clientelism depending on context-specific situations? Existing scholarship has largely focused on structural, institutional, and cultural norms to explain clientelism. Nevertheless, this literature does not adequately address the temporal dimension of citizens’ propensity to engage in clientelistic dynamics. In this article, we report evidence that willingness to engage in clientelism is driven by circumstantial factors, such as economic downturns or increases in political cynicism. Our contribution is twofold. First, we show that citizens’ willingness to engage in quid pro quo relations with politicians is at least partially driven by conjunctural conditions, rather than solely by structural and institutional determinants, as conventional scholarship asserts. Second, in the context of the worldwide crisis of representation and credibility in politics, we report that economic adversity, as well as temporary increases in political cynicism stemming from corruption scandals and other shortcomings of democratic representation, can play a significant role in explaining why people may be more likely to cast votes for non-programmatic reasons.